Successful Strategies to Sustain Profits from Tourism Following a Hurricane

Hurricanes have caused billions of dollars in damage to the hotel industry in Florida, significantly affecting tourism flow. The unpredictable impact of hurricanes makes sustaining profits challenging. The purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies that hotel leaders use to sustain tourism profits following a hurricane. The theory of image restoration provided the conceptual framework for the study. Data were collected from company documents and semistructured interviews with 5 hotel leaders in Central Florida. Transcribed data were coded then validated using member checking during the data analysis, which revealed 5 themes: storm impact, accommodations, operations, communications, and planning. Results indicated the relevance of the theory of image restoration to help hotel leaders get operations back to normal following a hurricane by using effective communication and planning. Results also indicated that when hotel leaders have an effective response strategy, the opportunity to sustain profits extends beyond tourism. Results may be used by hotel leaders to sustain profits and support their communities during hurricane recovery by providing accommodations, safety, and security to stakeholders other than tourists, such as first responders and state and local residents

CALENDAR VS. WEEKS TO EXPIRATION LIVESTOCK BASIS FORECASTS: WHICH IS BETTER?

The ability to accurately forecast basis is crucial to risk management strategies employed by many agribusiness firms. Previous research has examined how to effectively use basis forecasts and what factors affect basis, but literature focusing on forecasting basis is sparse. This research evaluates the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar approach, when forecasting feeder cattle, live cattle, and hog basis. Furthermore, the optimal number of past year's basis levels to include in making basis predictions is evaluated in an out-of-sample framework. Absolute basis forecasts errors are generated for all three commodities and evaluated to determine the signifcance of the two issues mentioned above. Results indicate that basis forecasters should consider using three-year historical averages for feeder cattle and four-year historical averages for live cattle and lean hogs when making basis forecasts. Furthermore, the use of a time-to-expiration method of calculating historical average basis results in very little improvement in basis prediction accuracy compared to the calendar approach.livestock prices, basis, hedging, basis forecasts, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

Improving Cattle Basis Forecasting

Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms based on futures and options contracts are contingent on their ability to accurately forecast basis. This research addresses three primary questions as they relate to basis forecasting accuracy: (a) What is the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar-date approach? (b) What is the optimal number of years to include in calculations when forecasting livestock basis using historical averages? and (c) What is the effect of incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based forecast? Results indicate that use of the time-to-expiration approach has little impact on forecast accuracy compared to using a simple calendar approach, but forecast accuracy is improved by incorporating at least a portion of current basis information into basis forecasts.basis, basis forecasts, cattle prices, current information, hedging, Livestock Production/Industries,

LIVESTOCK BASIS FORECASTS: HOW BENEFICIAL IS THE INCLUSION OF CURRENT INFORMATION?

Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms are contingent on the ability to accurately forecast basis. There has been substantial research on the actual use of basis forecasts, yet little research has been conducted on actually forecasting basis. This study evaluates the effect incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based-forecast has on forecasting accuracy when forecasting live cattle and feeder cattle basis. Furthermore, the optimal weight to place on this current information is evaluated in an out-of-sample framework. Root mean squared errors are generated for both commodities and evaluated to determine the significance of these issues. Results suggest that livestock basis forecasters should consider incorporating a proportion of the difference in current basis and the historical average of the current week when making their projections. The optimal amount of current information to include declines as the time interval between the week the forecast is being made and the week being forecasted increases.livestock prices, hedging, basis forecasts, current information, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

A connectionist model for dynamic control

The application of a connectionist modeling method known as competition-based spreading activation to a camera tracking task is described. The potential is explored for automation of control and planning applications using connectionist technology. The emphasis is on applications suitable for use in the NASA Space Station and in related space activities. The results are quite general and could be applicable to control systems in general

Farm-gate nitrogen balances on intensive dairy farms in the south west of Ireland

peer-reviewedNitrogen management and farm-gate N balances were evaluated on 21 intensive dairy farms in the south west of Ireland for each of four years (2003 to 2006). The mean annual stocking density was equivalent to 202 kg/ha (s.d. 29.6) of N excreted by livestock on the farm. The mean annual farm-gate N surplus (imports – exports) declined between 2003 and 2006 (277 to 232 kg/ha, s.e. 6.8; P < 0.001) due to a decline in annual N imports (fertilizer, feed and imported manures; 335 to 288 kg/ha, s.e. 6.9; P < 0.001). Overall annual fertilizer N use on the farms decreased during the study period (266 to 223 kg/ha, s.e. 6.5; P < 0.001) mainly due to lower inputs for the first application in spring and for the production of first-cut silage. These decreases were partly offset by applying more slurry in spring for early grazing and for first-cut silage. The introduction of white clover resulted in lower N imports on four farms. Export of N from farms was unaffected by reductions in N imports. The mean efficiency of N use tended to increase over time (0.18 in 2003 to 0.20 in 2006). The large variation in quantities of fertilizer N applied on farms with similar stocking densities suggests potential for further improvements in the efficiency of N use. In terms of fertilizer N use, complying with S.I. No. 378 of 2006 did not require major changes in the N management practiceson 19 of the farms.This project was part-funded by the European Research and Development Fund under INTERREG IIIB: Green Dairy Project N° 100 and partly by the Dairy Levy. Financial support for post-graduate students involved in this study was provided by the Teagasc Walsh Fellowship Scheme